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Liberal, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Liberal KS
National Weather Service Forecast for: Liberal KS
Issued by: National Weather Service Dodge City, KS
Updated: 3:31 am CDT Jun 6, 2025
 
Today

Today: Partly sunny, with a high near 74. North northwest wind 7 to 9 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon.
Partly Sunny

Tonight

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms before 3am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3am and 5am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 5am.  Low around 57. East southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming northwest after midnight.  Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Showers

Saturday

Saturday: Scattered showers before 7am.  Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 83. West wind around 8 mph becoming north in the morning.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Scattered
Showers then
Mostly Sunny
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North wind around 6 mph becoming south in the evening.
Mostly Clear

Sunday

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Sunny, with a high near 84. West southwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon.
Sunny then
Chance
T-storms
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms
Monday

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Mostly Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Mostly Cloudy

Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83.
Sunny

Hi 74 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 83 °F Lo 59 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 80 °F Lo 55 °F Hi 83 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Flood Watch
 

Today
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 74. North northwest wind 7 to 9 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon.
Tonight
 
Showers and thunderstorms before 3am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3am and 5am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 5am. Low around 57. East southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Saturday
 
Scattered showers before 7am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 83. West wind around 8 mph becoming north in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Saturday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North wind around 6 mph becoming south in the evening.
Sunday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 84. West southwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming east northeast in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.
Monday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Tuesday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Wednesday
 
Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
Wednesday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Liberal KS.

Weather Forecast Discussion
176
FXUS63 KDDC 060808
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
308 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will move out of Colorado around 6 or 7 pm,
  expanding east with time. An Enhanced Risk area after 7 pm
  extends from the Colorado line to Garden City and Liberal,
  where hail in excess of 2 inches (15-30% coverage) in diameter
  and Tornadoes (up to 5% coverage) are possible.

- Additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected between 7 pm
  and midnight in the southwestern most counties, leading to
  scattered to even numerous instances flash flooding This
  Evening.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Plenty of similarities exist in the mesoscale environment going
into late this afternoon and Tonight as compared with the large
hail and heavy excessive rain producing thunderstorms of
Thursday night. As a cool stable stratus layers begins to erode
and allow for afternoon destabilization, the CAPE and 0-3km
shear fields quickly evolve to once again support, fairly quick
moving northwest flow supercells along the KS/CO line by about
the 00 UTC timeframe. CONUSPROBV3 2-5 km prob updraft helicities
again target the southwest Kansas counties with intense
rotating updrafts between 00 and 05 z (7 pm and midnight). CAPE
looks weaker overall with more weight on the shear values. Those
southwest counties only show about a 20 to 50% chance for
MLCAPE values getting above 1000 J/KG, and virtually no chance
of 2000 j/KG. Nevertheless, a few counties including the
communities of Johnson, Elkhart Hugoton and Liberal are covered
in the hatched area for 2+ inch diameter hail Friday afternoon
and evening.

The last 24 hours are a great example of where uncertainty on
forecast becomes the biggest factor, as heaviest rains from
several rounds of thunderstorms few to the west of our watched
area in the southern 2 tiers of Kansas counties. Now, a higher
degree of confidence is lent to a new flood watch for excessive
rainfall for Tonight, across the southwest 4 counties as the
antecedent conditions will send all convective rain straight
into runoff  and all but certain to wipe out most of the the
abnormally dry area on the US drought Monitor south of the Ark
River. Look for scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding across these areas with inundated county roads and
water out of the banks of streams and tributaries. At this time
the latest 6-hr QPF ensemble prob matched means from HREF target
areas southwest of a Garden City to Ashland line with scattered
2 to 3 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Aviation impacts include widespread stratus as the trailing
stratiform convection leaves a cool boundary layer behind, with
light north winds through the morning. Plenty of moisture from
last nights rains may also lead to shallow fog development,
despite the cloud cover, in fact as of 04z, DDC only has a 1
degree dew point depression. Convection is reintroduced into
the terminals after 00z for LBL and GCK.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ061>063-074>078-
080-081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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